To Red Tide Luís
You know Luis:
The tools to secure freedom are being developed daily. Mostly these are computers, cell phones, satellites, etc. It won't be long before these things will be cheaply combined in a wristwatch sized package. These will flood into Cuba connecting islanders directly for the first time widely to the outside world. The clock is ticking on the regime's days. This tech hydra is growing new heads everyday. There will be someone wielding power within Cuba who will soon realize this and see the hand writing on the wall. They will try to ride this wave instead of being overwhelmed by it. This person, probably military, will be without blood on his hands who will take the opportunities technology presents because the following is the future.
Imagine a computer/communicator for about fifty bucks that would fit in a wristwatch or other small device that could easily be brought into Cuba and left with family. It will be linked with a satellite hundreds of miles over head. It will have a method of recharging the batteries using the electric grid. There will be two main uses for these devices. Mostly the young will use them for entertainment. But mixed in with these thousands of gamers will be our underground army who will be coordinated and linked through encrypted communications. These asymmetric pods will operate independently to undermine the regime using the traditional methods but aided by these emerging technologies. All the junta can hope to do is delay the inevitable. The more they do this the greater the anger and retribution that will be meted out to them by the people. History is filled with examples just like these of gun-powdering your way through the castle walls of a disbelieving, stunned leadership.
But rather than resists the inevitable, wouldn't it be better if right now the top leadership just abdicated? Then a military leader could temporarily take over, announce that elections would be held within the year and normalize relations with the US. Couldn't they use a couple billion bucks instantly brought in by Cuban exiles and the US government? Once these bloody guys at the top are gone couldn't we say it's all been a big mistake, let by-gones be by-gones and shake hands? The sad aspect of this entire quagmire is, everyday another Cuban dies exiled from his family or imprisoned in poverty brought about by absolute stupidity.
To sum up, the end is very near for the regime. The form the final days will take on depends on the top people. They can make it a smooth prosperous transition - or bloody, enraged one probably resulting in the loss of their own lives.